If Trump is right, the coming week could mark one of the most dramatic diplomatic turnarounds in recent history. The Strait of Hormuz is more than a line on the map; it is the artery through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil must pass. Every tanker halted, every missile test, every nervous naval encounter sends shockwaves through economies and households far from the Gulf. For families whose sons patrol those waters, the word “ceasefire” is not abstract—it is the difference between a phone call and a folded flag.

Behind closed doors, negotiators weigh pride against survival. Iran wants sanctions relief and security guarantees. Washington wants verifiable calm and open sea lanes. Between them lies a narrow space where neither side wins completely, but both avoid catastrophe. In that space, over the next seven days, the fate of a region—and the price of peace—will be quietly decided.