When asked about his chances earlier this week, Trump was noticeably restrained. “I have no idea,” he told a White House reporter. “Look, I did settle — Marco [Rubio] will tell you — we settled seven wars. We’re close to settling an eighth, and I think we’ll end up settling the Russia situation, which is horrible. I don’t think anyone in history has settled that many, but perhaps they’ll find a reason not to give it to me.”

Asle Toje, deputy leader of the Nobel Committee, had earlier suggested that Trump’s outspoken campaigning for the award might have harmed his chances. “These types of influence campaigns have a more negative effect than a positive one,” Toje said. “We