U.S. airstrikes near Bandar Abbas and a massive naval blockade have turned the Strait of Hormuz into the tightest pressure point on the planet. Publicly, Rubio vows the waterway “will be open one way or the other.” Privately, negotiators in Qatar grind through phrases and footnotes that could decide whether oil flows freely or the region slides into open war.

Iranian officials admit broad understandings have been reached, but warn that any talk of an imminent deal is fantasy. Washington, demanding a long-term, enforceable halt to high-level enrichment and a reopened strait, dangles the possibility of lifted sanctions and an end to the blockade. Trump insists it will be a “good and proper” deal or no deal at all. Both sides claim leverage; both know time, tension, and miscalculation could erase everything agreed to in a single night.