With Newsom at the top of the early field, analysts say it is important for conservatives to begin assessing both his strengths and vulnerabilities ahead of 2028.

Although Newsom has maintained a lead in Democratic primary polling for several months, his national approval ratings remain weak. A Sept. 9 Cygnal survey of 1,500 likely voters found him with a net approval rating of -5, with 38% approving and 43% disapproving.

The survey also highlighted Newsom’s struggles with key constituencies critical to winning swing states. His weakest numbers came from non-college voters, who disapproved of him by a 21-point margin, 48% to 27%.

That gap is wider than Vice President Kamala Harris’s 13-point loss among non-college voters in 2024, underscoring a long-standing Democratic concern over eroding support within this demographic in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin