In private, U.S. officials describe Iran as more flexible than at any time before the latest military operation, but also more suspicious. Tehran says broad understandings are in place, yet accuses Washington of moving the goalposts. For Trump, the stakes are personal and historic: he vows a “good and proper” deal or no deal at all, determined to eclipse Obama’s 2015 accord.

Everything turns on enforceability. The emerging framework would force Iran to give up highly enriched uranium, cap future enrichment for decades, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade and easing sanctions. But American warplanes still fly combat air patrols, Iranian missiles still track U.S. ships, and negotiators in Qatar still argue over commas. Peace is suddenly imaginable—yet one miscalculation, one failed promise, could send both nations back to the brink.