Gavin Newsom’s rise from scandal-scarred San Francisco mayor to governor and potential presidential contender is, in many ways, a story of American reinvention. He survived what looked like a career-ending affair by admitting fault, refusing to deflect blame, and burying himself in the work of governing. Over time, same-sex marriage leadership, high-profile battles with Republicans, and his stewardship of California overshadowed the 2007 implosion that once defined him.

Yet national politics is far less forgiving than a blue city or even a blue state. A relationship with a subordinate, a shattered friendship with his own campaign manager, and recent incendiary rhetoric about “punching” political enemies could be woven into a devastating narrative about judgment and power. Newsom’s future now hinges on whether voters accept that flawed people can grow—or decide that some breaches of trust can never be fully left behind.