After a historic conclave, a new pope was elected, which surprised many because he wasn’t one of the two cardinals who were generally regarded as front-runners—one of whom was praised and criticised for his singing ability.
Pope Francis died on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88, creating a void in the Vatican. Pope Leo XIV is the new head of the Catholic Church; two of the most promising contenders were not selected. Here is what we know about the procedure and the predicted winners, the cardinals.
The Voting Process
When the papal seat falls empty, the Vatican has a decree that specifies when a conclave must start. The constitution stipulates, in part, that the conclave to choose a new pope must convene within 15 complete days of the papacy being vacant.
All of the cardinal electors have time to come during this time. The College of Cardinals, however, has the power to begin the conclave early if every elector is already present. They might postpone it for a few more days beyond the fifteenth, but only for very good reasons.
All present cardinal electors must start the election after 20 days have passed since the vacancy started. Cardinals write the name of their preferred candidate on ballots bearing the Latin phrase “Eligo in Summum Pontificem” (“I elect as Supreme Pontiff”), which marks the start of the voting process.
Three scrutineers count votes, three infirmarii tend to ailing cardinals, and three revisers confirm the tally. Roles are distributed by lot. Before voting starts, the chapel’s doors are sealed and all non-electors leave.
At the altar, each cardinal elector casts their vote in order of precedence while taking an oath that invokes Christ as a witness to the sincerity of their selection. A chalice is used to collect votes, and special arrangements are made for anyone who are unable to walk or attend in person.
Votes are counted and validated once they have been cast. The vote is void and retaken if the count does not equal the number of electors. Votes that are valid are counted, read out loud, threaded, pierced, and kept safe. A candidate must obtain a two-thirds majority, or at least 89 of the 133 votes cast in the conclave, in order to be elected pope.
Ballots are burned in a cast-iron stove, which was first used in 1939, and voting can take place up to four times each day. From a chimney above the Sistine Chapel, a second stove sends out smoke signals: white for a successful election, black for no result.
There are prayer and spiritual encouragement pauses after each round that ends without a result. In the event that 21 votes are unsuccessful, the process selects the top two candidates, although they are unable to cast their own ballots and still need a two-thirds majority.
The new pope is introduced to the world after changing into white vestments in the “Room of Tears” upon election. Although a number of potential candidates had been floated throughout the 2025 voting, Pope Leo XIV, who was not one of the front-runners, ended up winning.
The Leading Names Before the Surprise Pick
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
Parolin was born in Schiavon, northern Italy, on January 17, 1955. He followed canon law after enrolling in the seminary at the age of 14 and receiving his ordination at the age of 25. He then joined the Vatican diplomatic service, serving in Mexico and Nigeria. Later, from Rome, he oversaw Church ties with other nations, including China.
Although he has never been charged, the cardinal’s leadership has been questioned in relation to various scandals, such as the Order of Malta crisis, the Vatican’s financial controversy, and Spain’s Franco memorial negotiations.
Parolin, who speaks multiple languages and is close to Pope Francis, is regarded as a practical and discrete individual who may more subtly carry on the late leader’s initiatives. Despite his lack of pastoral experience at the parish level, he is well-respected for his long tenure in Church governance, diplomatic prowess, and global perspective.
Because of his frequent travels and lengthy involvement in Vatican diplomacy, he is among the most well-known individuals to the 133 cardinal electors. He is generally considered a steady hand and is well-known for his calm, practical attitude.
He has handled sensitive political circumstances and frequently intervened to diffuse disputes brought on by Pope Francis’s public statements. He is neither explicitly conservative nor progressive.
In his diplomatic career, Parolin has handled delicate relationships with world leaders and handled contentious situations, like addressing foreign officials about the pope’s comments regarding Gaza and Ukraine.
His supporters contend that his international diplomatic activities have exposed him to the general problems of the Church, even though he has never held the position of diocese leader. However, his involvement in the 2018 covert pact with China, which gives Beijing control over the selection of Catholic bishops, has drawn criticism, especially from conservative quarters in the US and Asia.
His department’s financial control has also under criticism, particularly in relation to a botched $140 million London real estate transaction that resulted in a Vatican corruption trial. Parolin was not charged with any wrongdoing despite his testimony.
Parolin has been the secretary of state of the Vatican since 2013, and he is considered a “continuity candidate” who is quite similar to the late Pope Francis. He has overseen delicate discussions and is an experienced diplomat.
While Parolin’s fans perceive him as a realist with principles who seeks peace, his detractors call him an ideologue who is overly preoccupied with diplomacy.
Although Parolin is viewed by some as missing Francis’s charisma, he is admired for his professionalism and cool-headedness; one insider compared him to “Clark Kent without the Superman part”—hardworking, reliable, and unflashy.
The cardinal helped shut the papal apartments following Francis’s death and paid him a visit while he was in the hospital. Additionally, he assisted in welcoming cardinals from all over the world to the pope’s funeral.
Vatican (@catholicconnect)Parolin was spotted speaking with former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, President Zelensky, and former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Tens of thousands of faithful attended an outdoor Mass he conducted on the steps of St. Peter’s Basilica before to the conclave.
By May 7, 2025, Parolin was reportedly in the lead on both Polymarket and Kalshi. While wagerers on Kalshi, a prediction market platform that is legally permitted to take bets in the US, wagered $8 million, those on Polymarket, an offshore cryptocurrency-based betting site, wagered almost $21 million.
Papal scholars pointed to Parolin as a possible possibility because he was widely seen as more moderate than the liberal Francis. His chances of becoming pope were 32% on Kalshi and 31% on Polymarket.
Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle (Philippines, 67)
Tagle, who goes as “Chito,” was born on June 21, 1957, and comes from a wealthy Filipino-Chinese family. Prior to attending the seminary, he was pursuing a career in medicine under the guidance of Jesuit advisors.
He obtained further theological degrees in the United States and was ordained in 1982. His affiliation with the Bologna School, which sees the Second Vatican Council as a radical departure from previous Church traditions, made him well-known.
He rose through the ranks of the church, first as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila. Tagle, who was made a cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012, served as a leader in important synods and international organisations such as Caritas Internationalis. But in 2022, Pope Francis ousted him from the latter’s position.
He has been serving in Rome since 2019. Prior to becoming the pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation, he was the prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples. Tagle is frequently referred to as the “Asian Francis,” exhibiting progressive views, pastoral compassion, and emotional openness.
His opinions on Communion, homosexuality, and interreligious communication are more complex and have garnered both praise and condemnation, notwithstanding his adamant opposition to abortion and euthanasia. Traditionalists have questioned his participation in ceremonies such as the 2019 Pachamama celebration and his ambiguous religious declarations.
Tagle’s candidature was clouded in 2025 by a contentious report that claimed he was indirectly involved in gambling through proxies in Macao. Although his youth and apparent lack of moral clarity may hurt his chances, his international prominence, experience, and connection with Pope Francis’s vision keep him in the running.
As befitted an area with a rapidly expanding Catholic population, Tagle would become the first Asian pope. He was formerly the archbishop of Manila and, because of his progressive ideas, was thought to be Francis’s preferred successor.
Tagle continues to oppose abortion rights in his native country, despite criticising the Church’s attitude on divorced and homosexual couples. He may have lost favour with the Vatican leadership, as seen by the recent dimming of his star.
Multilingual, Tagle continues to be a prominent personality with both ardent supporters and doubtful detractors. His down-to-earth style—riding public transportation, dining with the impoverished, and singing and dancing with enthusiasm—has earned him the label “karaoke priest.”
A video of him singing on stage while wearing casual attire circulated on X in April 2025. His performance of John Lennon’s “Imagine” was posted online, and the lyrics raised concerns about whether he was violating Catholic doctrine.
However, it was reported that Tagle altered the lyrics to avoid including anything against religion. Seeing the clip, one person said, “Karaoke in the Vatican every Friday night… Pontifical High Mass hitting like crazy every time…May God grant us a pope who has the karaoke singing genes embedded in him…. [sic]”
Another commented, “Pinoy Papa, let’s gooooo [sic],” while someone else also approved, writing, “Karaoke every Friday night.” He appeared in another jolly clip that same month, singing and gesturing with his hands and fingers while dressed in his cardinal clothing.
Seeing the clip, one fan stated, “HE IS THE ONE.” A netizen questioned, “how can you not like him … [sic],” adding, “Tagle forever 
.” Someone else confessed, “I love this man. It’s what we need.
.”
Unfortunately, the cardinal was judged harshly that month for dancing with a statue of Jesus at an event. One critic wrote, “Zero tolerance for this.” The same person also noted, “Mass isn’t a talent show for your culture. Christ’s death isn’t your excuse for a dance party. Reverence isn’t ‘ignorance’ it’s [sic] the minimum God deserves. Keep coping. The sacred will survive your tantrum.”
Another person said, “If he is chosen as Pope, consider the damage that these seeds of distrust could cause in the hearts of many. We must be careful not to turn a possible anointed leader of the Church into an enemy through careless words. Please be mindful not to sow division where unity is needed most.”
“Ok ok ok Dear Lord Jesus Christ please Tagle No!! Papachito NO!! [sic]” was said by another.
Additionally, some claim he has been overly passive, with some citing Manila’s dearth of established protocols. In response to former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on illegal narcotics, Tagle was viewed as being overly cautious. In a 2017 letter, she denounced the executions after first maintaining mute.
Although he refrains from using combative language, he opposes abortion and the reproductive health law in the Philippines. He would be the first Asian to hold the position and a great source of pride for the Philippines, a pious Catholic country that has long felt subordinate to Vatican authority, if elected pope.
Tagle is commended for her ability to listen to the voiceless and for being a pastoral, caring example of the Church. With 20% chances on Polymarket and a 21% probability on Kalshi, he finished second after Parolin and was compared to the late pope.
Other Contenders Before the Final Choice
Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)
A social justice activist and seasoned cardinal, Turkson has the potential to become the first Black pope in centuries. He is well-known for taking strong stances against poverty, economic inequality, and climate change.
He has criticised the harshness of anti-LGBTQ+ laws in Africa, despite his usual conservatism in church doctrines around marriage and the priesthood. He strikes a balance between tradition and reform by continuing to speak out against corruption and violations of human rights. With odds of 7%, Turkson came in fifth place for the pope on Polymarket.
Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)
Erdő, a staunch conservative, is ideologically opposed to Francis. He is thought to be a possible departure from the progressive pope. He was a cultural and intellectual leader who was supported by the late Cardinal George Pell, who respected his legalist views.
In 2015, Erdő bolstered his traditionalist credentials by subtly supporting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in opposing Francis’s call for churches to provide refuge for migrants. With a seven percent possibility, Erdő came in fifth place for the pope on Kalshi.
Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)
Echoing Francis’s ideals, Zuppi, a prominent member of the Church’s progressive side, has been an outspoken supporter of social justice and peace. He had a diplomatic role in promoting peace during the conflict after being appointed a cardinal in 2019 and then a Vatican envoy to Ukraine.
He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill, who is an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zuppi is positioned as a progressive contender due to his strong humanitarian involvement and liberal stance on same-sex couples.
Zuppi came in fourth place for the papacy in Kalshi and third on Polymarket with 8%.
José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça (Portugal, 59)
One of the youngest applicants listed is Tolentino, which would be a drawback in a job where longevity is important. He shares a lot of similarities with the late Francis and has contemporary opinions that have generated controversy, such as being amenable to same-sex partnerships and having ties to a Benedictine feminist who supports abortion.
Despite his youth, he is known for supporting Francis’s inclusive agenda by calling on the Church to interact positively with contemporary culture.
Mario Grech (Malta, 68)
Grech was once renowned for his traditional beliefs, but upon Francis’ election, he took on more progressive stances. He has taken moral positions against European legislative decisions that restrict humanitarian aid to migrants and has advocated for the ordainment of female deacons.
His ideological development has been praised, indicating flexibility and a broader perspective as a result of Francis’s influence.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60)
Pizzaballa, who has been the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem since 2020, has played a significant role in promoting Christianity in the Holy Land. His selfless act of offering himself in return for children taken hostage by Hamas in 2023 demonstrated his moral fortitude.
After protracted negotiations, he later travelled to Gaza. His pastoral leadership in conflict areas elevates his prestige, despite the fact that he is not recognised for taking controversial doctrinal positions. Pizzaballa placed third for the papacy on Kalshi and fourth with nine percent.
Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79)
Sarah is a well-known conservative who has warned about Islamic extremism and “gender ideology” in her criticism of contemporary cultural changes. Many people viewed his co-authored book from 2020, which defended clerical celibacy, as a direct threat to Francis.
In the past, he tried to establish the Vatican as a substitute moral authority. He is a distinctive voice within tradition because of his steadfast orthodoxy and intellectual seriousness, despite his advanced age.
Pope Leo XIV Takes the Helm
Robert Francis Prevost (United States, 69)
Cardinal Robert Prevost, who was born in the United States, was elected Pope Leo XIV on May 8, marking the conclusion of the Vatican’s 2025 papal conclave.
Upon election, the newly elected pontiff ascended onto the balcony and his first words, “Peace be with all of you!” rang across St. Peter’s Square. He was solemnly introduced to the gathered crowd as the 267th Bishop of Rome by Cardinal Protodeacon Dominique Mamberti.
Because of geopolitical concerns, Prevost, a moderate American cardinal, encountered the typical scepticism reserved for US candidates for pope. However, after Francis promoted him in 2023 and he was appointed to the Dicastery for Bishops, his influence has increased.
In addition to his well-respected leadership qualifications from his time as head of the Augustinian order, he brings experience from the global Church, particularly from missionary work in Peru. He came across as a serious, albeit outlier, contender in his profile.
That unconventionality made his election a surprise—one that stirred a wide range of reactions across social media. “Some users expressed disappointment and frustration.” One person simply declared, “Rigged.”
Another questioned the Vatican’s choice, “Why not a black pope or an asian pope?” A different user echoed the sentiment, “Should’ve been a black or an asian one.” Others went further in their disapproval with a strongly worded comment reading, “What a horrible pick Seriously Catholics must be ashamed of the Vatican What a joke woke.”
Another skeptic remarked, “Surprise, it’s an American. To be honest, this isn’t a sign of hope. I pray to be wrong.” Still, there were also those who embraced the unexpected with faith as one hopeful user reflected, “God works in mysterious ways!”
Even so, some responses carried a tone of concern over the Church’s direction, “Wow… Congratulations to him I thought the church was sceptical about a USA cardinal as a pope for fear of their liberal nature and openness to new world order…? I guess the days of fear of the church core traditions and teachings being diluted are over .”
Pope Leo XIV is starting his pontificate amid high expectations around the world, as people look to him for spiritual guidance and wonder how he will replace the adored Pope Francis.
