Iran’s missile program sits at the center of its security strategy, compensating for a relatively weak air force while signaling that any attack on its territory could trigger a rapid, coordinated response. Thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, from Fateh and Zolfaghar to Shahab-3, Khorramshahr, and Sejjil, give Tehran the ability to threaten military bases and infrastructure across much of the Middle East. The 2020 strikes on U.S. positions in Iraq were not only retaliation; they were a carefully staged demonstration that Iran can launch multiple precision attacks in sequence and at scale.

Behind the hardware lies a deeper contest over time and technology. Underground “missile cities,” cruise systems like Soumar, and growing fleets of drones such as the Shahed-136 are designed to complicate every defensive calculation. Even without intercontinental missiles, Iran’s evolving capabilities force neighbors and great powers alike to plan for a future in which any confrontation could escalate faster, farther, and more unpredictably than they dare to admit.